This series has been gross and difficult, filled with blowouts until Game 6. But somehow, against the odds, the Heat have forced a Game 7 at home.
Now we have the very rare circumstance of a home dog in a Game 7. A No. 1 seed has only been a home dog once since 2003, in 2018 when Chris Paul was out for the Rockets.
Can Miami pull off what most would feel was an incredible comeback? Will Boston lose its fourth conference finals in the last six seasons?
Here are five things to know about how to bet Celtics-Heat Game 7.
1. Historical Trends All Favor Miami
Let’s run those Game 7 home trends:
- Home teams in Game 7s all-time: 110-34 all-time (76.4%)
- Home teams since the advent of the 3-point shot (shot variance): 75-26 (74%)
- Home teams since 2000: 47-21 (69%)
- Home teams in the conference finals: 17-8 (68%)
- Home teams in the conference finals since 2000: 5-4 (55%)
On top of that …
- Teams that won Game 1 at home are 102-28 in the series in the conference finals. (Miami won Game 1.)
- Teams that were up 2-1 with home court advantage are 53-11 in the series in the CF. (Miami was up 2-1.)
- Since 2003, home teams in Game 7 that won Game 6 are 11-3, and 5-1 after the first round.
So all the historical trends favor Miami here.
What does that have to do with these two specific teams? Nothing. These two teams are not those teams, this series is unique unto itself.
The reason these trends matter is the very nature of Game 7s. Teams shoot better at home, and often times a Game 7 is where adjustments and counter-adjustments balance each other out by the time you get to a Game 7. Both teams are gassed, so [...] read more