Bowen: Why Ukraine Remains Defiant and Does Not Feel Close to Defeat

As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine grinds into its fifth year on February 24, 2026, Ukrainian forces show no signs of capitulation. Despite relentless Russian pressure, Kyiv’s defiance stems from tactical adaptations, strategic calculations against unfavorable ceasefires, and a belief in sustaining resistance long enough to shift Moscow’s calculus.[1][2]

Tactical Resilience on the Battlefield

Ukraine’s military has evolved significantly since early 2025, countering Russia’s infiltration tactics that rely on superior fires, drones, and poorly trained infantry assaults. Russian advances, such as the slow push toward Pokrovsk, have averaged just 15 meters per day from late February 2024 to early January 2026, highlighting the grinding nature of the conflict rather than decisive breakthroughs.[3] In Kupiansk and southern sectors, Ukraine’s elite units have mastered offensive operations under modern conditions—integrating drones, electronic warfare countermeasures, and precise counterattacks to reclaim positions.[1][2]

A February 25, 2026, military summary underscores this dynamism: Ukrainian forces from the 25th Separate Assault Battalion repelled Russian armored pushes east of Bilitzk, while conducting counteroffensives on Zaporizhzhia’s northern flank.[4] Even amid Russian gains in Kostiantynivka and Kaduga, where infiltrations threaten Ukrainian lines, pro-Ukrainian sources report ongoing stabilization efforts, preventing collapses.[4] These actions demonstrate Ukraine’s capacity to inflict punishing casualties—Russia sustains high losses from FPV drones, artillery, and glide bombs—while fixing defensive belts that would be lost in any withdrawal.[2][3]

Jeremy Bowen, BBC’s veteran correspondent, would likely emphasize this grit: Ukraine does not feel defeat looming because its troops have turned Russia’s attrition strategy against it. Moscow’s reliance on coerced reservists and small assault groups yields marginal gains at enormous cost, eroding Putin’s domestic tolerance if momentum stalls.[1][2] As Putin claimed strategic initiative post-Kursk in late 2025, battlefield reality tells a different story—Russia advances “with confidence” only on paper, grinding against fortified Ukrainian positions.[3]

Rejecting a “Bad Offer” from the West

A core reason for Ukraine’s defiance lies in the perils of proposed ceasefires. US-brokered talks demand Kyiv abandon Donbas remnants—its critical defensive belt—for vague security guarantees, forcing repositioning to unprepared terrain.[2] This risks collapse if fighting resumes, leaving Ukraine militarily vulnerable. European Parliament resolutions on February 24, 2026, affirm four years of aggression but underscore Kyiv’s resolve amid wavering Western confidence in US commitments.[5]

Politically, President Zelensky cannot sell territorial concessions at home, especially when they cede ground enabling Russian encirclements like those in Kostiantynivka.[2][4] Lowy Institute notes 1,461 days of war by February 2026, with Ukraine viewing cessation as riskier than continuation.[6] Bowen might frame this as rational defiance: stopping now hands Putin a win without exhausting his forces, while fighting on demonstrates sustainability.[1][2]

Russia’s Limits and Ukraine’s Path Forward

Russia’s persistence through 2026 hinges on maintaining recruitment despite “punishing” casualties from Ukrainian fires.[1][2] Innovations in drones, glide bombs, and electronic warfare aid incremental gains, like Avdiivka’s fall in 2024 leading to Pokrovsk probes.[3] Yet, RUSI analysts predict Moscow sustains efforts only if advances accelerate; spring vegetation could expose infiltration tactics if Ukraine scales training.[1][2]

For Kyiv, the imperative is force generation: disseminating elite unit tactics across the front to bolster troop strength.[1] Recent Zaporizhzhia clashes show Ukrainians contesting every meter, bombing Russian strongholds to deny reinforcements.[4] This aims for a “mutually hurting stalemate,” raising Russia’s costs until Putin perceives domestic risks outweighing gains.[2]

Bowen, drawing from frontline reporting, would highlight Ukrainian morale: no sense of defeat when successes like Kursk incursions (reversed by Russia but costly) and counteroffensives prove resilience.[3] International fixation on negotiations ignores Kyiv’s math—endure to force Moscow’s hand, rather than accept a flawed deal undermining defenses.[2]

Broader Implications for 2026

As the war marks four years, Ukraine’s defiance reshapes narratives of inevitable Russian victory.[3][5] CSIS details Russia’s “grinding” approach: 50 kilometers in nearly two years, reliant on high-casualty infantry probes.[3] Ukraine counters with adaptive warfare, rejecting exhaustion narratives.

In Kaduga and beyond, Russian infiltrations falter against determined defenses, with Ukrainians stabilizing pockets despite deteriorating situations in some areas.[4] This tenacity—rooted in tactical prowess, ceasefire skepticism, and attrition reversal—explains why Ukraine fights on. Bowen would conclude: defeat feels distant when resistance yields results, and the path to security lies in proving endurance, not concession.

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Original source: BBC News – World – Bowen: Why Ukraine remains defiant and does not feel close to defeat